Will a Paramount- Warner Bros Discovery Merger Create Value or Just More Debt?
— Anonymous Reader on a plane to MIPCOM
This deal makes sense in the same way putting a jetpack on a unicycle makes sense: it sounds cool until you try to steer it.
Let’s call it what it is. Paramount is a freshly reanimated zombie with new management, private equity adrenaline, and Ellison money propping up its bones. WBD is still wheezing from the last merger hangover, buried under $35 billion in debt and halfway through a corporate mitosis. And now, one wants to swallow the other whole?
Paramount’s pitch is basically: “Trust us guys, we just finished one deal. Now we’re ready for a $50 billion encore.” Bold. Especially when the first merger (Skydance + Paramount) hasn’t even settled into a run-rate. And WBD? It’s mid-split. Zas is literally breaking the company in half to make it easier to sell off in pieces. Paramount wants the whole enchilada before the parts hit the buffet.
Zaslav knows exactly what he’s doing: split the company, shed the debt, and let suitors fight for the clean half. He’s already told Ellison to come back with real money or get lost. Word is he wants north of $30 a share. And he’s betting the mere possibility of other bidders (hi, Comcast) will make Ellison sweat.
It’s not totally nuts. There’s logic in scooping up HBO, the WB lot, and a crown jewel library before Apple or Amazon wakes up. Combining CBS Sports and TNT Sports? That would be a firehose of rights. And if you squint hard enough, you can see the cost synergies and IP leverage.
But squinting is exactly the problem.
This isn’t exactly a strategy exactly. It’s a land grab. It’s Ellison trying to scale fast enough to matter before Big Tech swallows what’s left, even if his own funding comes from a Silicon Valley checkbook. It’s Zaslav wanting a legacy exit before Wall Street loses patience. It’s Apollo licking its chops at a breakup play. None of that means it’ll work.
Culturally, it’s a mess. Paramount still operates like a legacy broadcast company with cable DNA and a streaming service that hasn’t quite earned its own identity. But they’re sitting on killer IP. The problem isn’t the content. It’s the wrapper.
I read a piece yesterday blaming TikTok for killing MTV. Cute theory, but I’d say it’s more YouTube that killed MTV than anything. TikTok just danced on the grave. That’s the kind of delayed diagnosis legacy brands still don’t know how to treat.
Mashing WBD and Paramount together doesn’t create a coherent identity. It creates an identity crisis. Who are you programming for? Who do you market to? What tier of the talent community are you courting? These aren’t footnotes, they’re foundational.
Then there’s the balance sheet. Everyone wants to talk about “optionality” and “synergy” until the interest payments hit. WBD’s debt isn’t just a number, it’s a choke collar. You’re not just buying a studio and a library; you’re buying a cash flow challenge that could kneecap any “investment thesis” before it has a chance to return a dime. Skydance isn’t Blackstone. And Larry Ellison may be rich, but he’s not an infinite ATM.
Regulators? Don’t count on a clear runway. Yes, the Trump-era FCC has been more lenient, but public opinion is turning on media consolidation again. And this isn’t a vertical merger. This is a horizontal land grab with real implications for sports rights, news access, and market share. If the DOJ gets nervous, this could turn into a long, bloody knife fight that delays everything and spooks the markets.
And now Comcast is sniffing around too, ready to stir the pot just enough to make sure no one thinks Ellison’s the only game in town. If this becomes a real auction post-split, Ellison might wish he stayed in the Skydance lane.
There’s a reason Netflix and Apple are sitting this one out: they don’t need to chase chaos to grow. Netflix can license. Apple can cherry-pick. Amazon has Thursday Night Football and a Whole Foods data engine. The only players who need this deal are the ones who can’t afford another mistake.
So, what happens if they go through with it? You get the most over-leveraged, over-stretched, and under-integrated media conglomerate of the decade. Sure, there might be a window where the markets cheer. But then comes the real work: cultural alignment, platform rationalization, rights untangling, talent retention, and content strategy that somehow threads the needle between CBS primetime, HBO quality, and Paramount+ mediocrity.
And if it fails? You’re left with a bloated beast that no one else will want to rescue.
Skip Says:
If Ellison buys WBD, he’s not scaling a media company, he’s inheriting a maze.
Zaslav wants bidders. Ellison wants biceps. The deal only works if one stops pretending they’re in control.
This might be the start of a new empire or the final act of legacy media’s collapse.
Either way, buckle up. This flight’s got turbulence.
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