A couple of months in, ESPN and Fox One are off to a solid start in the direct-to-consumer race. But the real question is whether they can hold that ground when football season fades.
According to new data from Antenna, ESPN’s direct-to-consumer service pulled in 2.1 million sign-ups between its August 21 debut and the end of September. That already exceeds most analysts’ projections for the end of the year. Wells Fargo, Wolfe Research, and LightShed all expected ESPN to reach between 1.5 and 2 million subscribers by December. ESPN got there in just over a month. Notably, 57% of subscribers opted for the full $30 per month ESPN service, while the rest signed up for ESPN Select (formerly ESPN+), which offers a more limited slate of live games, shows, and documentaries.
Fox One, which also launched on August 21, brought in 1.1 million sign-ups during the same period. This is the first time Antenna has broken out that figure specifically, after previously stating ESPN claimed the majority of early subscribers. While neither network has released official figures, Antenna’s data provides one of the few external glimpses into how these launches are resonating with consumers.
Weekly Spikes and Sports-Driven Surges
Both platforms have seen steady weekly increases in sign-ups around key NFL matchups, according to Antenna. Fox One experienced a notable surge during Week 2 of the NFL season, driven by the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch, which became the most-watched NFL broadcast of the 2025 season so far. These sports-driven spikes will likely continue. Fox begins its World Series coverage this week, and both networks will benefit from the height of college football and the start of NBA and college basketball seasons.
Can ESPN and Fox Retain Subscribers After Football?
Retention is the elephant in the room. The post-football subscriber dip is a known risk. YouTube TV has been through this already, seeing material losses after the NFL season. And because streaming is far easier to cancel than cable, ESPN and Fox One could see steep drop-offs once the calendar turns. So far, ESPN has proven that people will pay for premium sports content, especially during peak season. But sustaining that momentum is a different challenge entirely.
ESPN is betting that bundling will help. Its recently launched $39.99 per month package, which combines ESPN and Fox One, is just one of several offers designed to increase stickiness. Other versions include ESPN with NFL+, or with Disney+ and Hulu, ad-supported or not. The goal is to soften churn by offering perceived value across platforms. But even bundled, these services must earn their keep each month. Outside of live games, ESPN’s on-demand library does not yet offer the kind of daily utility that reduces cancel risk.
A Strategic Tightrope Between DTC and Legacy Bundling
Both ESPN and Fox are navigating a tricky balance. The traditional cable bundle still delivers dependable revenue, with networks paid for every pay-TV subscriber regardless of viewership. It also offloads marketing costs and simplifies distribution. At the same time, younger audiences increasingly skip cable altogether. Reaching them requires going directly. But that comes with volatility.
That’s why neither company is fully walking away from the bundle. Instead, they’re hedging — launching direct-to-consumer offerings while keeping one foot firmly planted in legacy economics. And while the early DTC figures are promising, it’s notable that neither Disney nor Fox is committing to transparency. Both companies, like Netflix, have stopped breaking out individual subscriber totals in earnings reports. Third-party estimates like Antenna’s are all we have.
The Streaming Wars Take
Early traction is encouraging. However, anyone treating these numbers as a sign that ESPN and Fox One have solved the streaming issue is getting ahead of themselves. This is the streaming version of the “Week 2 overreaction.” The key metric is not who signs up in September. It is those who are still around in February.
Bundling is a smart play. It stretches perceived value and lowers churn risk. But even bundled, these products have to earn their monthly price point. Currently, neither ESPN nor Fox One has sufficient on-demand content to retain casual sports fans year-round. The NFL creates short-term momentum. Retaining those customers without a steady cadence of must-see content is the real challenge.
As Fox One head Pete Distad admitted, “We don’t know exactly where this is going to land.” ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro echoed that sentiment: “We’re still in the first inning.” He’s right. But in streaming, innings go fast.
