If TikTok manages to avoid a U.S. ban, the ByteDance-owned company’s global advertising revenue could reach $32.4 billion by 2025, surpassing the growth rate of competitors like Facebook and Instagram. According to a recent report from WARC, this would secure TikTok an 11% share of the global social media advertising market.
WARC’s latest Marketer’s Toolkit survey forecasts TikTok’s global ad revenue will increase by 24.5% year-over-year. In the U.S., TikTok is expected to generate around $11.8 billion in ad revenue—a 21% annual increase—outperforming the projected 10.6% growth for total U.S. social media advertising expenditure in 2025.
These projections reflect strong support from global marketers, with 81% of surveyed agency professionals and 74% of client-side marketers indicating their preference to boost investments in TikTok over other digital platforms in 2025.
Globally, TikTok ranks as the fifth most-used mobile app and is particularly popular among women aged 16-24, ranking second in this demographic. WARC reports that TikTok users spend an average of 35 hours per month on the app, resulting in a total advertising reach of approximately 1.6 billion hours—over twice that of Instagram.
With 136 million active users, the United States represents TikTok’s largest market. A ban in the U.S. would severely impact TikTok’s revenue potential and prompt advertisers to shift their spending to competing platforms. According to WARC, Instagram would be the primary beneficiary in the event of a ban, with YouTube and Snapchat also positioned to capture additional advertising budgets due to recent investments in TikTok-like features.
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