It’s been clear for a while that YouTube is one of the most dominant platforms in media. But Michael Nathanson’s latest report puts that dominance into sharper and more staggering perspective. According to the veteran MoffettNathanson analyst, YouTube isn’t just big. It’s about to be the biggest. Full stop.
With $54.2 billion in revenue last year, YouTube is projected to surpass Disney in total revenue by the end of 2025, and potentially as soon as this year. That would make it the top global player in media. Not in digital, not in video, but in media.
Nathanson doesn’t mince words in his annual YouTube report, calling the platform the “new king of all media.” If YouTube were spun out as a standalone business, public comps suggest a valuation between $475 billion and $550 billion, roughly 30 percent of Alphabet’s current market cap. That’s on par with companies like Meta and Netflix.
The growth story here isn’t just historical. It’s forward-looking.
YouTube still has a significant upside, especially in terms of ad monetization on connected TVs. While viewing on TV screens has now surpassed mobile — a milestone YouTube confirmed last month — its CPMs haven’t caught up. Nathanson estimates YouTube is charging 18 cents per hour of viewing, well below Pluto’s 26 cents. That gap leaves billions in ad revenue still on the table, especially given YouTube’s scale and data advantages over other AVOD and FAST platforms.
It’s not just advertising. Nathanson outlines YouTube’s three-pronged monetization engine: advertising, which brought in over $36 billion in 2024; subscriptions, which include YouTube Premium, YouTube Music, and Primetime Channels like NFL Sunday Ticket; and YouTube TV, which now has more than 8 million subscribers and is positioning itself as a top U.S. pay-TV provider.
He’s especially bullish on subscription growth, although he notes the pace will likely slow as the business matures. Even with that moderation, he expects YouTube’s total revenue to grow in the low-to-mid-double-digit range through 2027.
The real takeaway is that YouTube isn’t just a media company anymore. It’s becoming the central aggregator for video across categories. As traditional media companies consolidate or pivot toward profitability, YouTube pushes forward with scale, optionality, and platform power.
If the future of media is about controlling access to audiences and monetizing attention across formats like ads, subscriptions, and bundles, YouTube is already leading the way. And it’s still gaining ground.
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