“With Netflix now behaving more like a network than a tech company, are we watching the birth of a post-streaming streaming industry?”
— Director, Strategy & Insights, Entertainment Studio
As I’ve said numerous times (much to Kirby’s chagrin, I think), the Streaming Wars are over. Netflix won.
BUT that victory won’t get a big parade, because (as Ted and Greg obviously recognize) Netflix is too busy transforming… again. (Remember when they used to send us DVDs – in the f*cking mail?) Netflix is not acting like a tech company. They are becoming the next-generation Cable TV company. The TF1 deal, the WWE deal, the NFL deal, adding advertising, and adding that to a mix of Creators. That’s not Tech. That’s Next-Gen Pay TV.
We are, in fact, right now, IN the post-streaming television industry. When all TV (and all Media) is streaming, then we can now just call them “TV” and/or “Media.”
The question is: What defines success in this post-streaming world?
Clearly not subscribers alone. That’s why Netflix stopped reporting them, and Disney followed suit. Ads? They are back! But are they effective? Can we measure them? Can the streamers do what OG TV did? So far, not yet. 86% of all ads in the US are still seen in PayTV and Broadcast – watched by the same, shrinking, aging audiences, over and over. The data across much of streaming television sucks. Retail MediaTV? That’s why Walmart bought Vizio and Amazon teamed with Roku. The Creator Economy? MrBeast got $100 mil to make a silly game show. BBC Studios now employs a Creator Mindset as its business model – making Bluey a massive hit on Disney+ AND YouTube, simultaneously. Which of these represent the new goal posts for the New Normal?
The answer is: Yes, and.
ESHAP Says
Success will be defined by all these components and more. The way to thrive in the post-streaming wars Television business is to stop thinking of it as “the Television business,” and start thinking about the entire ecosystem as a huge flywheel, with your IP or your content offering at the center. It will require super-serving your most valuable users. It won’t be about reach and frequency, but rather ARPU and LTV – increasing the amount that your fans will pay, and hyper-satisfying their needs to keep them loyal as long as possible.
Can Netflix do this? Remains to be seen, but certainly the race is theirs to lose. Can anyone else do this? I think Disney’s recent moves – specifically their Charter deal and the new strategy for ESPN – demonstrate that they understand the assignment. YouTube already has this mastered. Amazon has everything they need to win, except a clear vision at the top. Can any of Traditional Media succeed at this new practice for this New Normal?
So far, nobody’s showing they can.
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Evan Shapiro, dubbed the “Cartographer of the Media Universe,” is known for his widely cited maps, infographics, and sharp industry analysis. Through his Media War & Peace newsletter, ESHAP transformation agency, and Media Odyssey podcast, he charts the future of media for executives worldwide. An Emmy and Peabody Award-winning producer (Portlandia, Brick City, Please Like Me), Shapiro’s work spans TV, film, and podcasts. He also taught for 18 years at NYU’s Stern School of Business.
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